Playing a mix

Been playing a mix of .5/$1 6-max, NL10 and micro-tourneys. Doing so-so at 6-max, I beat this level fairly easy before the UGIEA but it's giving me the same difficulty $1/$2 did back then, to be expected I guess since the games have gotten slightly tougher since the US crackdown.

Doing decently at NL10, 15BB/100 but only 900 hands so not enough to feel confident about my play yet. Doing decently on my ROI thanks to a 2nd place in a 4x180. I was very happy with my play until the HU, made a few bone head moves there that cost me 1st. Overall my tourney play has been improving; was ITM in today's $100k, made two moves based on reads, both worked as I'd hoped. Wasn't happy with my last hand, a tight player pushed all-in UTG. I was in the BB with ATo and he had me slightly covered. I knew he was tight (13/9) and there was a good chance he had better than ATo, I was leaning towards folding then started thinking about my M and called. Should have listened to my read, he turned over AQ and it held up.

My attitude towards my play is beginning to change, which is a good thing. Don't get as upset with myself when I make a bad move, watching the Stox videos has helped alot there.

Figuring out lines

Been playing .25/.50 6-max again and need to start testing some of my assumptions about the average player.

For example, have noticed an increase in the number of players who will cold call a raise behind and lead the flop, turn and river on low boards. My basic assumption is that the average player will not fire w/air into two players on the flop and turn but I think I've got this wrong. In looking at hands I've folded on the river, villain won 61% without showing his cards. Given that you only hit a pair on the flop 32% of the time and only improve 25% by the river, 61% of hands won without the cards being seen seems pretty high.

Over the next week, if I'm raised and get a cold-caller and a blind call, I'm going to go to the river regardless and see how it plays out. The math on a few scenarios indicates calling down with hands that are likely to be better than their range is +EV.

For example, you raise PF and get two callers, the board is low and one opponent leads the flop, both call. Turn is another rag and the bettor leads again, one fold, you call. You miss the river and bettor leads again, you call.

Opponent will hit a pair on the flop 32.38% of the time, he'll have air 67.62%. If neither of us have improved:

.6762(8.5BB) - .3238(2.5) = +4.94BB

If he checks the turn and then bets the river unimproved, a call is +3.58BB.

If the second opponent will call the turn because he improved, a river call is -0.78 but all you need is an 8% chance he is bluffing the river unimproved to break even.

It's still read dependent but think I need to try the call down approach for at least a week and track what happens. Will the average LAG fire blanks into a PFR on all streets on a raggy board?

Whoo Hoo!

Won another ITH League sat. I don't know why I usually do ok in these; I thought it was because I focus better but today realized it may also be due to the fact I love playing against fellow ITH'ers, it's fun, and so I usually enjoy these games more. Ciaran tells me I'm a luck box; and I do usually get lucky with one or two hands. Sometimes I make the wrong move at the right time and get paid. Today, it was a 53o hand :)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

UTG (t3320)
Button (t1440)
Hero (t865)
BB (t3375)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3h, 5c.

UTG raises to t150, 1 fold, SB raises to t865, 1 fold, UTG calls t715.

I raised here hoping UTG would fold, we were only 4 handed and table was pretty tight so was hoping he was on more of a steal than real hand. Optimistic on my part, but hey, I've got 53o!

Flop: (t1780) Ad, 2d, 3s (2 players)

Whoo hoo! I have outs :)

Turn: (t1780) 9h (2 players)

River: (t1780) 4d (2 players)

Lol... my outs came in :)

Final Pot: t1780

UTG has 7d 7c (one pair, sevens).
Hero has 3h 5c (straight, five high).
Outcome: Hero wins t1780.

I think that was the only place I really got lucky; the timing was great though. I'd been down to 240t early when blinds were still 10/20. I was in the SB with pocket QQ's. UTG made it 60, B called and I made it 300. UTG re-raised to 760t. I probably should have folded to the re-raise but instead I pushed. UTG turned over KK and they held up, my stack went from 1,550t to 240t. So winning in the end was even sweeter :)

Winning or Losing?

I love this post by Ed Miller. He's so right. Poker is a solitary roller coaster ride and in the end has very little to do with beating others and everything to do with beating yourself.

NL .02/.05 6-max

Managed to get in a some decent sessions the last few days. I've been focusing more on my preflop, hand reading and watching opponent betting patterns. Had one today I nearly folded on the river. We were 5 handed and I raised 3xBB 1st in from the CO with A A. The Button and SB folded and the BB called. The flop came 9 8 A. The BB checked, I bet the pot and he called. The turn was J. Again, the BB checked, I bet the pot and he called. The river was 7, not a great card for me as it completed two draws. BB bet 1/3 of the pot. He had played the hand like a draw but his bet size didn't seem right. I thought he had something but (a) he in the blind, and (b) he had an AF of 2 on the river. Admittedly, this was over a small hand sample but his bet looked weak to me. He was giving me 4:1 to call so felt there was no way I could fold the set; I called. He did have a hand, 9 9, for a smaller set. Felt good about that one :)

I was playing two tables and there was one guy at both; he was playing 4 tables and a real TAZ: 34/31/5 with Attempted Blind Steal of 64%. He was UTG to my blind on one table and B on the other and he was wailing on my blinds. His fold to blind steal was 0%, he defended them very aggressively. I started to get annoyed and then decided to just wait until I got a hand. My patience paid off, he won some of my blinds but I netted 35BB from him. Sort of drove home the point that I don't have to aggressively defend my blinds in NL; it works differently than limit because you've got more control over the pot size.

I also managed to pick off a number of river bluffs, amazing how many people will suddenly bet out on the river when the board pairs; they usually don't bet enough, maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of the pot although one I picked off was a 1/2 pot bet. I had raised AQ and bet the pot on a fairly dry flop 8 A 5. The turn was another rag and I bet the pot again. The river was a 5. Villain had check/called the F and T and then suddenly bet 1/2 the pot on the river. But I'd noticed in other hands that he would bet bottom pair in HU and multiway situations regardless of the flop texture. In this hand he had checked/called so I figured he probably didn't have the 5 and called. He turned over K 2; he'd been on the flush draw and had then decided to bluff the river.

Didn't make any total donk errors that I could see so feeling a bit better about my game. I even made a few moves against players based on reads and they worked out, for the most part, in particular against the TAZ and against another player who was super loose and aggressive but the aggression was weird, he was 67/0 and he would min bet the flop and turn and people would fold. I kept waiting to see a hand but there were no showdowns; he'd limp, min bet the flop and turn and everyone would fold. So I started raising him and either raising his flop or turn bet and he'd fold. It was a nice setup until a LAG sat in behind us and started cold calling; sandwiching me so I had to tighten up.

Anyway, just gotta keep doing more of the same: focus and think correctly at the table.

Blog Clean Up

Got tired of looking at the narrowness of my blog layout so updated to the Jellyfish template.

Working my way through Ed Miller's Poker Made Simple videos on StoxPoker and one thing that is really hitting home is that I do not think along good lines at the table; I try to focus on way to many things with the net result that I focus on nothing. No surprise, my mafia play made the same thing abundantly clear. Now I have to figure out how to fix it.

In the hole again

Well, after patting myself on the back for getting in a few good sessions went into the tank yesterday, reverting to old habits and gave it all back :(

Had a better session today; don't think I made any PF errors or post flop errors that I could see but ended up down for the session. Raised AQo on the B first in. SB completed, BB folded. Flop was 5 2Q, SB checked, I bet the pot and SB called. Turn was A. SB checked, I bet $1 and he raised to $2. Possible hands were 34, a smaller 2pr, or 4FD. SB was sLPP 31/0/1.25 so figured he had something; I was ahead of the 2pr and flush draws so pushed. He called and turned over K 3. The J hit the river and he won the hand. I was 75:25 on the push so think it was ok. He was also right to call; if he'd only had the flush outs his call would have been a mistake but with the GS he had 13 outs needing 2.5:1 and he was getting 2.9:1.